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MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

25,888.84

+11.39%

S&P

7,431.46

+8.56%

Dow

51,202.26

+6.53%

10-Year

4.487%

+32.4 bps

Bitcoin

$65,433.63

-25.23%

ExxonMobil

$147.01

+23.81%

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*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 11:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

Markets: Investors will be keeping an eye on geopolitical developments between now and Friday, when the US and Iran are slated to sign a deal in Geneva, as well as the Fed’s interest rate decision due to be announced on Wednesday (more on those below).

SHIPPING THIS

US, Iran reach ceasefire deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz

Ships near the Strait of Hormuz on June 1. Amirhossein Khorgooei/Getty Images

The United States and Iran reached a deal yesterday that President Trump said would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the US’ blockade of Iranian ports. That’s welcome news for the global economy, which has been experiencing higher inflation since the war began on February 28.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, a critical negotiator, announced the news on X around 5:30pm ET yesterday: “Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

Both President Trump and Iran’s National Security Council confirmed the deal’s existence, with Trump saying on Truth Social that it includes “the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” and “the immediate removal” of the US blockade. Iranian officials told the New York Times that Iran had held off on finalizing the agreement until after midnight local time so it wouldn’t be reached on President Trump’s birthday.

So…is the war over? The full text of the agreement was not released, but the deal appears to be a 60-day extension of the existing ceasefire, as it does not address Iran’s nuclear program nor the US’ economic sanctions on Iran.

In a phone call to the New York Times yesterday, Trump said that if Iran did not reach a satisfactory nuclear agreement with the US during the 60-day window, the US might become “the guardian of the Middle East” in return for 20% of revenue from the region.

What happens next? An official signing ceremony will take place on Friday in Geneva. In a follow-up post to Truth Social, President Trump wrote, “With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!”

Zoom out: Shipping in the critical waterway may not resume until the end of the week. In the meantime, oil prices plunged last night.—HVL

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Harold Cunningham/Getty Images

G7 leaders meet in France with packed agenda. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting the group this year in Évian-les-Bains, and he wants to focus on easing tensions among the members. That might be easier to do with President Trump bringing news of the Iran deal, but some European leaders remain concerned that the US’ stances on climate change, NATO, and Greenland will make it difficult to put on a happy face. To help ensure that Trump will not leave the summit early, as he has in years past, Macron is said to have specifically scheduled a one-on-one dinner with him at Versailles following the meeting’s conclusion. Macron said the dinner is meant to celebrate America’s 250th anniversary, since some of the treaties that officially ended the Revolutionary War were signed at Versailles in 1783.

Details of the latest White House–Anthropic spat emerged. On Thursday, following a request from the White House for feedback, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy allegedly raised concerns that Anthropic’s new model, Fable, could be “jailbroken” and used without guardrails, according to anonymous sources who spoke to Business Insider. (Amazon is a minority investor in the AI company.) Anthropic insiders told some media outlets that the Trump admin had then given the company an ultimatum to take the models offline within 90 minutes. When Anthropic didn’t comply, the White House put export controls on some of the company’s models on Friday, forcing them offline. Since then, Anthropic said in a blog post that “no testers have yet been able to find a universal jailbreak” for Fable. Senior Anthropic staff are reportedly now in Washington with White House officials to work through the dispute.

President Trump celebrated 80th birthday with UFC cage fight at home. And he didn’t just sit in front of the telly with some snacks. The UFC mixed martial arts event went ahead on the South Lawn of the White House last night despite the threat of thunderstorms. The UFC Freedom 250 fights began with Trump and UFC CEO Dana White walking a red carpet from the White House to the Octagon before the two took their places cageside among the 4,300 spectators for the invite-only event. Also in the crowd to take in the seven fights were Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison, and podcaster Joe Rogan.—HVL

SPURRING ECONOMIC GROWTH

Knicks in 5, and KPIs thrive

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

When the New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, the team ended a 53-year championship drought after making it rain millions of dollars on the hometown economy. According to the New York City Economic Development Corporation:

The first three rounds of the Knicks’ postseason generated $202 million in economic activity.
Going into the finals, each additional home game was projected to generate $90 million each. (The Knicks ended up hosting two.)

New jerseys in New York: Game nights kept bars and restaurants in all five boroughs packed for weeks, but the impact went deeper. “People get pumped up. They go get a new hat. They get a new jersey. They’re going out. They get a haircut,” New York City Hospitality Alliance Executive Director Andrew Rigie told Spectrum News NY1.

TV assist

Unless you’re Derek Zoolander or Lisan al-Gaib, you probably watched the games on TV. Last week’s historic Knicks comeback, which aired on ABC, was the most-watched NBA Finals Game 4 since 1998, and that one involved Michael Jordan after he appeared in Space Jam. The Los Angeles Times reported that 30-second commercials in the Knicks–Spurs finals series were going for $1 million a pop on average.

Knicks-on effect: Having the NBA Finals as a lead-in on the network also helped Jimmy Kimmel dunk on Jimmy Fallon in the ratings last week, as both late-night shows work to find their post-Stephen Colbert footing.—BC

READER POLL

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CALENDAR

The week ahead

Richard Pelham/Getty Images

Warsh and wait: Welcome to the show, Kevin Warsh. The new Fed honcho’s first meeting as chairman takes place tomorrow and Wednesday, and analysts overwhelmingly expect the central bank to keep interest rates steady. That way, the Fed can wait-and-see its way through the latest batch of data that showed both accelerating job growth and inflation. Warsh is expected to hold a post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, but don’t expect one after every meeting—he’s signaled he may scale them back.

World Cup action continues: Last week—while Europeans on social media were discovering Waffle House, Buc-ee’s, and ranch dressing—Americans discovered that their national soccer team might be pretty good. After a dominating 4–1 win over Paraguay, the US men will take on Australia this Friday in Seattle. Nearly 16 million people tuned into the first US match, making it the most-watched World Cup group stage telecast in English-language US history, according to Fox Sports. More than two dozen other matches will also be played this week.

Summer-ish holidays: This week, investors get (the option at least) to enjoy a long weekend. Markets are closed on Friday in observance of Juneteenth. Then, Sunday is Father’s Day, so buy your grill accessories and whiskey stones now before they’re all sold out, and don’t scrimp. This year, US consumers are expected to spend around $227 on average to celebrate Dad, which is a record, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

But wait, there’s more:

US retail sales data will be released on Wednesday.
Golf’s US Open will start on Thursday and continue through Sunday.
Pixar’s Toy Story 5 will hit theaters this Friday.

BRENDAN’S GOT GOOD NEWS

A job weld-done

Mario Tama/Getty Images

Mondays are bad enough, so the Brew’s own Brendan Cosgrove scoured the internet for a positive news story to help you start the week off right.

SpaceX’s IPO last Friday reportedly turned thousands of current and former employees into millionaires. But leave it to a welder to have the best arc.

When SpaceX hired Juan Hernandez in 2015, the company offered the welder $10,000 worth of stock. “I thought in my head, I don’t know what SpaceX is, but let’s go,” Hernandez told CBS News. He ended up working there for a decade, preparing rockets for takeoff and building the launch infrastructure. And now those shares are worth more than $1 million.

Despite his windfall, Hernandez plans to keep working. He’s now employed by Blue Origin, where he presumably walks the halls with founder Jeff Bezos and Katy Perry.—BC

Winner winner chicken dinner trivia

Only eight countries have ever won the World Cup. How many can you name?

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ANSWER

Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England, and Spain

Let’s add the US to the list this year.

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: honcho, meaning “boss” or “hotshot.” Thanks to Sean Chatham from Athens, GA, for the heavyweight suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

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