Daily Brew // Morning Brew // Update

July 01, 2026

Glad you’re here. Today is not only the first day of the second half of the year, but it’s also a sacred day for baseball fans: Bobby Bonilla Day.

Every July 1, retired third baseman Bobby Bonilla receives a $1.19 million check from the New York Mets, even though he hasn’t played an MLB game in 25 years. Back in 2000, the Mets owed Bonilla $5.9 million, but instead of taking that cash up front, he negotiated a contract that spreads out $30 million in guaranteed payments each year from 2011 until 2035.

And so, July 1 has become an annual celebration of Bonilla’s financial planning—and an opportunity to make fun of the Mets even more than we already do.

—Matty Merritt, Sam Klebanov, Dave Lozo, Adam Epstein

In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into:

Stocks’ best quarter in six years
SCOTUS rejecting Trump’s attempt to end birthright citizenship
The Supergirl megaflop

MARKETS

Nasdaq

26,213.72

+1.52%

S&P

7,499.36

+0.79%

Dow

52,319.20

+0.26%

10-Year

4.418%

+4.0 bps

Bitcoin

$58,609.99

-2.65%

Strategy

$86.93

-6.20%

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

Markets: Stocks finished the quarter—and the first half of the year—strong, powering past Iran worries to rip a new record for the Dow. Bitcoin, however, did an impression of the “Squidward staring wistfully out his window while Spongebob and Patrick have fun outside” meme, continuing its dismal year.
Stock spotlight: Crypto’s fall has forced software company and bitcoin holder Strategy to abandon its mantra to “never sell.” Its stock dropped more than 6% today and is down ~45% year to date.

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BABY, YOU'RE A FIREWORK

Stocks just had their best quarter since 2020

Angela Weiss/Getty Images

So far this year, the stock market has had the vibe of six Roman candles duct taped to the back of a Ford Ranger: shooting up farther than everyone expected, but on an unstable base. The S&P 500 closed Q2 yesterday up 14.9%, its biggest jump since 2020, when markets were rallying after their initial Covid nosedive.

The index is up 9.55% since the start of the year, despite declines starting in late February when the US and Israel attacked Iran. In the last quarter, markets responded to the back and forth between countries by betting that tensions were easing and the Strait of Hormuz would open:

The Dow ended yesterday up 8.85% since the start of the year—its best six months since 2021.
Nasdaq added about 12.8% since the start of the year.

Chip makers are loving life. The biggest driver comes from the AI industry—specifically hardware makers like chip and memory stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had its best quarter ever, logging a nearly 92% return rate in the last three months. Companies like Sandisk, Micron, and Intel are leading the way.

Small cap stocks are faring well, too…if they’re also latched onto AI. The Russell 2000 has edged up over 20% since the start of the year, its best performance since 1991. But 16 of the best-performing 50 stocks are chip-related companies that have pulled up the rest of the index.

Gold has seen better days. After a record high in January, gold had its worst quarter since 2013. Economic uncertainty typically spikes gold prices, but the strong US dollar and expected interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve later this year have driven the price down.

Looking ahead…Fed rate increases could cool markets in the latter half of the year. And red flags in the AI industry are still waving, as OpenAI is reportedly weighing pushing its IPO to 2027, and semi-stagnant growth from Nvidia signals that chip maker returns may have peaked.—MM

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

SCOTUS rejects Trump’s bid to end birthright citizenship. In a 6–3 decision, the Supreme Court upheld the constitutional right of birthright citizenship, striking down President Trump’s executive order declaring that babies born in America to undocumented immigrants or nonpermanent residents are not US citizens. The constitution extends the right of citizenship to “every free-born person in this land,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in his majority opinion. “We keep that promise today.” In a social media post, Trump said the ruling was “too bad for our Country” and told Congress to step in. In news that the president was happier about, the Supreme Court also upheld state laws banning transgender girls and women from playing on school sports teams.

The UK may challenge Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. Uncle Sam may have approved it, but John Bull has questions. Lisa Nandy, the UK’s Secretary of State for Culture, Media, and Sport, told Parliament that “I am minded to intervene” in Paramount Skydance’s proposed $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). Nandy cited concerns about maintaining the “plurality of views in news media” as well as the “plurality of persons with control of the media enterprises.” The deal would put CNN and CBS News under one roof and give Paramount ownership of WBD’s film studios and streaming services.

LeBron James reportedly told the Lakers he will play elsewhere next season. The NBA legend will be taking his talents somewhere other than Los Angeles for 2026–2027, ESPN reported yesterday. James, officially a free agent as of last night, played eight years with the Lakers, helping them win the title in 2020. Per ESPN, the Golden State Warriors are circling, while his former teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat, may also be interested in a reunion. The 41-year-old, who is still playing at a high level despite being born the year that The Terminator hit theaters, leaves behind his son, Bronny James, who’s still on the Lakers.—AE

READER POLL

What team do you want LeBron James to go to?

Golden State Warriors
Cleveland Cavaliers
Miami Heat
Somewhere else
What is basketball?

JOBPOCALYPSE NOT NOW

Comforting news about AI’s threat to jobs

Niv Bavarsky

You may want to hold off enrolling in clowning school to AI-proof your career, as new research undermines AI jobpocalypse fears. Companies hired more after heavily investing in AI tools, according to a study published yesterday by corporate finance platform Ramp and HR software firm Revelio Labs.

Enhance not replace

The study found that employers that adopted AI actually hired faster than their counterparts that did not:

AI-forward companies expanded headcount by 10.2% in the 24 months after adopting AI, while there was no noticeable employment change for companies with modest AI adoption.
In a reassuring sign for early-career professionals, entry-level hiring grew at the same rate as for more senior roles at AI-forward firms. The most aggressive AI adopters tended to have a higher share of junior employees than firms that hadn’t adopted AI.

These findings might provide some solace to worried white-collar workers by challenging the notion that AI is taking their roles, even as companies blame the tech for layoffs and some research suggests it might be shrinking entry-level employment.

Looking ahead…the report’s authors caution that it’s too early to tell what AI’s effect on the labor market will be down the road. But some economists think AI could actually create jobs by making companies more efficient, potentially boosting consumption of their services.—SK

Geography trivia

Tonight, the US men’s national team will face off against Bosnia and Herzegovina, one of seven countries that comprised the former Yugoslavia. How many of the other six can you name?

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ANSWER

Croatia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, and Kosovo, which the US and more than 100 UN member countries recognize as a sovereign state.

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: plurality, meaning “a large number or quantity,” among other definitions. Thanks to Claudia from New Orleans for the suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

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The information provided in this email is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment or financial advice. Investing involves risk. Gold and precious metals can fluctuate in value. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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