September 12, 2026

Presented By

Rise and shine. A CIA agent accused of creating a fake classified program in order to steal $40 million in gold bars is close to a plea deal. Either way, the alleged scheme was bound to leave the agent behind bars.

—Dave Lozo, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Holly Van Leuven, Abby Rubenstein

In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into:

An interest rate hike looking very likely
The end of the lettuce-linked outbreak
The next Middle Eastern strait you need to know about

Markets

Nasdaq

26,333.03

+0.96%

S&P

7,656.98

+0.86%

Dow

52,573.29

+0.98%

10-Year

4.975%

+3.0 bps

Bitcoin

$77,150.54

+0.45%

Dell

$567.29

+11.97%

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

Markets: Stocks didn’t want you starting the weekend on a bad note, so they rose yesterday. The major indexes snapped a four-day losing streak as oil prices fell and the latest inflation reading made an interest rate cut look more certain (more on that below).
Stock spotlight: But probably no one celebrated as hard as Michael Dell, since his computer company rose enough to push him to No. 3 on the Forbes billionaire list, edging out Jeff Bezos for the spot.

HIKING TRAIL

Inflation sizzles…and a rate hike looks inevitable

Illustration of a person standing at the base of a steep hill with a shopping cart, looking up mildly alarmed at the windy path ahead. To the right there's a sign that says

Niv Bavarsky

The latest inflation report and subsequent reaction from the markets say that Kevin Warsh is less than a week away from raising interest rates for the first time as Fed chair. The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the previous 12 months, challenging the narrative from July’s data that inflation was cooling.

Core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) is among the data the Fed scrutinizes for interest rate decisions. It jumped a higher-than-expected 0.3% for the month. That has traders pricing in a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate hike next week, per CME Group data.

Major drivers of overall inflation included:

Energy: Gasoline prices climbed 3.9% over the previous month and 27.4% over the past year, fueled (sorry) largely by the war in Iran.
Food: The food index inched up 0.1% for the month and increased 2.7% over the past 12 months.
Electronics: While smartphone prices were down 12.2% year-over-year, computer software and accessory prices skyrocketed 25.4% over the past year, the largest annual price increase ever.

More market reactions: Treasury yields remained near multiyear highs yesterday.

Will Warsh raise rates despite Trump’s desire for cuts?

The stage is set for the Fed to raise rates for the first time in three years to steer inflation back toward its 2% annual goal, something it hasn’t achieved in five years, with investors mostly anticipating a quarter-point hike.

It’s a political conundrum for the typically tight-lipped Warsh, who President Trump selected with an expectation that he would lower rates. But high prices are also a factor in the upcoming midterm elections.

But there’s still a case for doing nothing: While the market is pricing in a rate hike as a near certainty, not everyone is convinced it’s needed. One expert told CNN a rate increase coupled with overwhelmingly high energy prices could actually slow the economy more than the “tap the brakes” the Fed intends.—DL

Reader Poll

What do you think the Fed will do next week?

Raise interest rates by a quarter point.
Hike interest rates by a different amount.
Keep rates steady.
Cut rates (I’m a contrarian).

Sponsored By ZBiotics

A drink before you drink

Thanks to science, it’s possible to imbibe without it costing you the next day.

It starts with ZBiotics® Pre-Alcohol Probiotic Drink. Designed by PhD microbiologists, ZBiotics breaks down acetaldehyde, aka the byproduct of alcohol that causes rough mornings.

Simply drink ZBiotics before your first alcoholic beverage of the night, and it will work its scientific magic. It’s ideal for those times when you want to socialize without stressing about how you’ll feel the next day.

Give it a try before your next night out and experience the difference yourself. Use code BREW for 15% off your first order, backed by a 100% money-back guarantee.

World

Tour de headlines

Packages of Taylor Farms lettuce on a grocery store shelf

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

🥬 Massive cyclosporiasis outbreak declared over. No one’s been this happy about lettuce since women posed for stock photos: Yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deemed the outbreak of the gastrointestinal illness caused by a parasite found in lettuce over. The largest-ever outbreak included 12,883 lab-confirmed cases across 21 states since May 1, and was linked to iceberg lettuce grown by Taylor Farms in Mexico. Taylor Farms voluntarily recalled the possibly impacted lettuce from grocery stores and restaurants in July. The FDA is still investigating how the lettuce got contaminated and other outbreaks of the parasite—but at least you’re now likely to see fewer headlines about explosive diarrhea.—AR

🐌 Sam Altman is reportedly open to slowing AI development. The OpenAI CEO who kicked off the current AI race by unleashing ChatGPT on the world told employees the company would be open to slowing down the development of its tech, Bloomberg reported. Altman is hoping other companies will do the same, but cautioned that they might not, anonymous sources told the publication. The news comes as OpenAI and rival Anthropic (which has publicly called for a global developmental slowdown) prepare for IPOs…and after departing employees of both companies have questioned the safety of the tech.—AR

🎾 Ben Shelton will face Germany’s Alexander Zverev in US Open men’s final. Americans Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe battled it out in the last semifinal of the tournament last night, with Shelton beating Tiafoe in four sets and securing a spot in his first career Grand Slam final, which will be held tomorrow. Shelton will be the first Black man to play in a US Open final since Arthur Ashe, the stadium’s namesake, did so in 1972. He will attempt to become the first American man to win the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003. The women’s final takes place this afternoon, with two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka facing off against Elena Rybakina.—HVL

STRAIT TALK

Iran-backed Houthis seize key Red Sea island

Gallo Images/Getty Images

Iran-backed rebels in Yemen just got a tighter chokehold on the world’s oil supply. The Houthis captured Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, several outlets reported yesterday. The narrow corridor, which connects the Red Sea to the ocean, is a vital conduit for Saudi Arabian oil shipments and has taken on even greater importance as Iran restricts traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis also advanced on Yemen’s Red Sea coast this week in a ground offensive that has killed 500 people and displaced 46,000 locals, per the UN.

Oil whack-a-mole

Gaining further control of the 20-mile-wide strait makes it easier for the Houthis to stymie Saudi oil exports—which were already down by a third in August from July amid Houthi attacks:

Saudi oil suppliers sent some tankers through the Red Sea’s Northern exit, aka the Suez Canal, but that route is longer and costlier.
Saudi oil is increasingly in danger even before it reaches a boat: Yesterday, the Kingdom said it shut down a pipeline that carries oil to the Red Sea as a “precautionary measure” following drone strikes from Iraq the previous day.

Meanwhile, oil prices have passed the $100-per-barrel mark for the first time since May, and were up nearly 8% this week amid escalating fighting between the US and Iran. The Houthis’ capture of Perim could push prices even higher.

Big picture: Experts say that oil disruptions give Iran more leverage in negotiations with the US.—SK

This week’s question

What’s an eatery where you are a regular—and what do you usually get there?

Sam’s answer to get the juices flowing: “I make sure to periodically visit this hole-in-the-wall Uzbek café in my neighborhood where I’m usually the only person conversing in English. I invariably get their richly spiced pilaf and dumplings topped with sour cream.”

Submit your response here.

recs

Why scientists say three minutes of exercise could be more beneficial than 90 minutes.
A philosophical framework to help you make hard choices.
Could NASA’s laundry gun ever clean your clothes?
Refresh your bedspread for fall.**

Markets are rewriting the rules. Join leaders from Nasdaq and Schwab to learn which strategies fit and a deeper understanding of the Nasdaq-100®’s behavior. Register for the event today.*

Future-ready. We teamed up with New York Life to learn how whole life insurance can round out your financial plan.*

^{*A message from our sponsor. **This is a product recommendation from our writers. When you buy through this link, Morning Brew may earn a commission.}

Play

Brew Crossword: Your sample clue from our biggest puzzle of the week is “Embezzler’s downfall.” Grab your favorite beverage and play the Crossword.

Open House

Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section willing to venture into Packers territory. We’ll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.

Zillow

Today’s home is in Lisbon, WI. This 2,288-square-foot house was built in 1974 and is situated on Mountain Meadows Drive. It’s so stylized, it’s hard to imagine the property doesn’t come with a 1950s sitcom family built in. Amenities include:

3 beds, 3 baths
Heated bathroom floors
A butterfly garden and fruit trees (of course)

How much for a home that is kinda giving Don’t Worry Darling?

Share the Brew

Share the Brew, watch your referral count climb, and unlock brag-worthy swag.

Your friends get smarter. You get rewarded. Win-win.

Your referral count: 0

Click to Share

Or copy & paste your referral link to others:
morningbrew.com/r/?kid=71df84e8

Answer

$675,000

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: apocalypse, meaning “the end of the world.” Thanks to Reid, who didn’t give a location but who we assume is holed up in a bunker, for the suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

Written by Abigail Rubenstein, Dave Lozo, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, and Holly Van Leuven

Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here.

Get smarter in just 5 minutes

Tech & AI News: Tech Brew
Markets News: Brew Markets
Real Estate News: The Playbook
Money & Career: Bossy

Take The Brew to work

Interested in podcasts?

Check out ours here.

ADVERTISE//CAREERS//SHOP//FAQ

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here.
View our privacy policy here.

Copyright © 2026 Morning Brew Inc. All rights reserved.
22 W 19th St, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10011

☕ Looking inevitable