Wealthsimple

November 9, 2026

well, well, well... if it isn't the consequences of my own actions

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In This Issue

8 min read

Three burning questions after Trump’s U.S. midterm shellacking

Plus!

Ottawa’s big budget drop

Kalshi beefs with pollsters

The Idea of the Week

An uppercut to the AI sector topples the champs

by Peter Arkle

Wall Street loves a gory metaphor, and last Thursday’s market carnage gave traders a chance to dust off an old chestnut: “They’re shooting the generals!” Credit for the revival goes to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott, and it refers to a particular breed of sell-off when the market’s top performers get hit the hardest of all — an apt description for the single-worst day on both the tech-heavy Nasdaq (-5.5%) and the S&P 500 (-4.3%) since April 2025. All year, the global market rally has been propelled by AI and AI-adjacent companies, but in the past two weeks, a pair of sell-offs — a tremor on Oct. 30, then the quake last week — turned them into dead men walking. And it wasn’t just metaphorical generals on the firing line: the plunge was so swift that it triggered actual firings at some heavyweight hedge funds.

The silver lining? So far, it’s mostly just the generals. The light-on-AI TSX and the RSP, which is the S&P’s equally weighted index — essentially a measure of the S&P’s average stock — are just 4% off all-time highs and still up more than 10% for the year. The concentration of the losses, though, is a reminder of how fast enviable wins can turn into eye-watering losses.

TSX: -0.7% (+12.5% YTD)

S&P 500: -3.33% (+7.25% YTD)

What Happened Last Week

Three burning questions from the U.S.’s midterm blue-nami

You know the headline — a coast-to-coast Democratic wave slash brutal rejection of Donald Trump — but such a lopsided outcome only sparked new questions:

So is the U.S. just going to stop building data centres? No, but it sure got a lot harder. Zoom in on Texas, poised to become the data-centre capital of the world by 2030, where Elon Musk spent CA$316 million (see chart) to back AI-buildout-friendly Republicans — and voters responded by electing a Democratic senator and governor. Anti-AI sentiment swept across the entire country, and that’ll mean more delays and moratoriums. But the party’s union wing might strive for compromise, since it very much wants those data-centre construction jobs ASAP. Where will Big Tech store its toys in the meantime? Musk’s take: “Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now.” Canadian tech’s take: “Build them here.”
Are prediction markets the future of political prognostication? Tuesday’s races marked the second major U.S. election in which prediction markets figured prominently in political media coverage, sparking the hottest debate of this election cycle: are prediction markets better at calling races than pollsters? They weren’t this time! As New York mag points out, Kalshi’s performance was more hit or miss than advertised, and its biggest misses were on the harder calls (South Carolina, Iowa) that the Nate Silvers of the world sussed out early. That didn’t stop Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour from taking a victory lap on X, where he trumpeted that prediction traders had “beat the elites.” Enter Silver, who accused Mansour of “stolen valor” and reminded him that traders take their cues from pollsters, so … maybe next time try saying thanks?
So about all those tariffs … do they just vanish? Highly unlikely. Consider Michigan, one of the state’s hardest hit by Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian autos. Even the GOP’s Senate candidate there ran against the tariffs. But Congress has limited powers to fight Trump on this front, and, while Michigan Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed has called Trump’s blanket tariffs on Canadian goods “dumb,” he does support “targeted tariffs” to protect his state’s manufacturing base (and he’s not alone).

In one Texas Senate race alone, he reportedly contributed CA$316 million — that’s more than every dollar spent by every candidate and party in Canada’s 2025 federal election.

The new federal budget is here, and the big winners are …

… entrepreneurs and creators! PM Mark Carney spent the summer talking about “nation-building projects” and “economic sovereignty,” and now his government’s budget is sending a chunk of Canada’s oil profits to a few select groups: $4B over five years for Canadian arts and culture, and a slew of tax incentives aimed at keeping tech founders and entrepreneurs in Canada. (More highlights: a later tax-filing deadline! A top-up to help low-income families cover groceries! No more fees when you change your telecom plan!) As the NDP pointed out, though, only a third of the budget is devoted to everyday affordability measures — and the Conservatives had a lot to say about the government’s $62.3B deficit.

Oh, and speaking of government promises, Ottawa is making good on its pledge to end investment-account transfer fees. That means the big banks can no longer charge you a penalty (usually $150 per account!) when you move an RRSP, a TFSA, an RESP, or a non-registered account to a competing financial institution. The ban was promised in last year’s budget and stands to benefit consumers as well as fintechs (like, you know…).

—Jenna Benchetrit

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The FOMO Index

by Stacey Woods

Important

U.S. judge rules the case against the McRib will go forward. McDonaldland attorney general offering a meal deal to get the Hamburglar to flip.
Source

Company that offered “endless cruises” ends endless cruises. Remember: if they can do it to shrimp, they can do it to anything.
Source

Toys “R” Us will open stores inside 300 Staples locations across Canada. It’s so parents can entertain themselves while their kids shop for toys.
Source

Mysterious blob popping up around Toronto revealed to be chronic-inflammation character “Flammy.” Look for him next to StatinX and Hypertenso in the Marvel Universe.
Source

Crash & Burn

To the Moon

Court upholds Montreal’s ban on insulting language toward cops. And anyone who doesn’t like it can exercise their right to take deep breaths and journal.
Source

Satanists finally granted permission to hold their holiday event inside the Iowa Capitol building. “Where did I go wrong?” cries Satan.
Source

New West Hollywood law allows polyamorous groups to register as domestic partners. But fingers crossed you never have to visit your orgy in intensive care.
Source

Canadian Tire is making a holiday ornament of its viral reusable bag. How precious it’ll look on the tree, all strung with Shoppers receipts!
Source

Who Cares?

The Big Important Story

Pivot plan: Four tips for launching your career second act

Let’s say that your lifelong dream of becoming an ornamental-grass lawn-care influencer isn’t panning out, or maybe Fort McMurray wasn’t, in fact, the ideal place to launch your touring Shakespeare company. Or perhaps, more plausibly, you’re worried that your job is vulnerable to AI. Whatever the motivation, you need to pivot careers, posthaste. Studies suggest that a well-considered switch, even one that means a temporary pay cut, can dramatically improve both your earnings and job satisfaction long term. The hitch is knowing how to pull off a smart pivot. We asked Charina Cruz, a career coach in Vancouver, to share some concrete tips for navigating a successful career transition.

Figure out what you’re actually good at
A good pivot is based on skills from your actual life. If you spent summers coaching Little League baseball and loved it, that’s great supporting data that you’d make a great teacher. On the flip side, if you want to be the next MrBeast but you’ve never even considered locking five people in a freight container for four months (much less paying them to do it and filming the whole thing), then you might reconsider.

Make yourself an irresistible hire
Your Excel wizardry probably won’t move you to the top of the pile when you’re applying to be a stevedore. (The beanie helps.) Supplement your experience with courses, volunteer work, and passion projects. If you don’t know where to begin, try a class from Udemy, Coursera, or even LinkedIn Learning. But fair warning: switching your function/role and your industry at the same time can be tough. Consider doing it in two steps: first change functions at your current employer, then, once you’ve mastered new skills, carry them to a different industry.

Network, network, and, uh, network
Nearly half of job-seekers report getting hired thanks to personal connections. If you have none in your new field, join industry associations, reach out to possible mentors, and attend meetups. This is your ticket in (and sometimes you get free snacks). “Despite all the internet stuff, we still live in a world where employers want referrals,” Cruz says.

Just get started
Do a few small things each week that inch you ahead, whether that’s updating your résumé or showing up to an industry cocktail hour. Once you’re in motion, treat your career like a living thing that needs maintenance: periodically check in on connections, work on résumé-boosting side projects, etc. Landing a new job is a short-term goal, but building a sturdy career is a long-term project.

—Dan Xin Huang

The Big Listen

Baseball’s Salary Cap, Universal Playoff Expansion ... and Elon Musk, Owner? ⚾

Journalist Pablo Torre and a pair of sports-business titans break down why players and owners are on the brink of war. | Pablo Torre Finds Out

Wisdom of X

most US couples now meet in a data centre

Thoughts on Today’s Issue?

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This week’s newsletter contributors: Brennan Doherty (writer), Devin Gordon (writer), Stacey Woods (writer), David Walters (writer), Jenna Benchetrit (news writer), Ambrose Martos (fact checker), Ciara Rickard (copy editor), Maude Campbell (copy editor), Sara Black McCulloch (fact checker), Eva Grace Clement Cruz (specialist, product engagement), Lauren Edwards (production coordinator), Matthew Karasz (markets editor), Jared Sullivan (editorial lead), Peter Martin (senior editor), and Devin Friedman (editor-in-chief).

Total returns shown in local currency, via TradingView.

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