Daily Brew // Morning Brew // Update

June 18, 2026

Morning, sunshine. We hope you’re having as productive a start to your day as the folks Bloomberg reports are getting paid $950 to hold spots for others at the (free) Knicks ticker-tape parade in NYC today.

A quick reminder: If you wake up tomorrow and see morning brew on your phone, you might need to put it in rice because you spilled your coffee on it. Like the stock market, our office will be closed in observance of Juneteenth, a commemoration of the end of slavery in the US following the Civil War. But we’ll be back in your inbox on Saturday to bring you the news and (hopefully) a chuckle.

—Dave Lozo, Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, Holly Van Leuven, Abby Rubenstein

In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into:

The first interest rate decision with Kevin Warsh as Fed chair
What’s in the Iran deal
Carvana’s “new car playground” strategy

MARKETS

Nasdaq

26,021.66

-1.35%

S&P

7,420.10

-1.22%

Dow

51,492.55

-0.98%

10-Year

4.463%

+4.0 bps

Bitcoin

$63,968.01

-2.65%

SpaceX

$191.82

-4.95%

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

Markets: Stocks did their best Jacques Cousteau impression yesterday, plunging deep after Fed officials signaled during Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair that rate hikes are likely this year (more on that below). The dive meant Warsh experienced the worst S&P 500 dip for a new chair’s first “Fed day” since 1994, CNBC reported, citing Bespoke Investment Group. Meanwhile, SpaceX finally got pulled down by gravity, suffering its first down day since its market debut and snapping its 3-day hot streak.

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HIKING TRAIL

Fed signals rates may rise at Warsh’s debut meeting

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced yesterday that the Fed voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range. But things might not stay steady for long. Even though Warsh was nominated by President Trump with an expectation that he would lower interest rates quickly, the central bank signaled that rates might actually go up this year.

A lot has changed since Warsh was nominated: Since he was chosen as the new chair by President Trump in February, the war in Iran turned inflation red-hot. This led to Trump telling Warsh in May to “do your own thing”...and that thing was keeping rates the same (for now).

Now, rate hikes seem more likely: Yesterday, nine of 19 officials projected a rate hike coming this year after none did so in March. That increased the odds of two rate hikes in 2026 from 17% on Tuesday to 37% yesterday, per CME Group, and set markets tumbling following Warsh’s afternoon press conference.

Warsh wants other changes

While rates are not changing right away, how the Fed gathers and interprets economic data and how extensively it communicates with the public will receive deep examination:

Warsh is forming five task forces to look at Fed operations. These committees will examine communications, economic data that relies on “old-fashioned survey methods,” and artificial intelligence’s potential impact on growth without heating up inflation.
The new chair broke from past practices and abstained from offering his input on a “dot plot” rate forecast for the rest of the year, leaving forward guidance out of the report.
When asked about the central bank’s long-held goal of 2% inflation, Warsh said it didn’t need to be revisited until after it was reached.

There was some good economic news: He concluded his first Q&A with reporters by saying Fed officials see labor markets as stable—unemployment has held at 4.3% for three straight months as of May—with some saying they were “trending better than that.”—DL

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Bill Clark/Getty Images

Trump scuttles quick confirmation of his national intelligence pick. The Senate was scheduled to hold a confirmation hearing yesterday for former Securities and Exchange Commission head Jay Clayton. But President Trump—who nominated Clayton after his interim choice for the role, Bill Pulte, proved controversial—pulled the plug on that hours before it was slated to happen. In a Truth Social post, Trump said there’d be no hearing until Clayton’s replacement as a prosecutor was confirmed. Clayton’s nomination had paved the way for the renewal of FISA surveillance powers, which Democrats and some Republicans objected to with Pulte in the role. But Trump’s post said he wouldn’t sign off on the FISA extension unless lawmakers also approved an unrelated voting bill he wants passed.

Luigi Mangione to use psychiatric defense at state murder trial. Mangione’s attorneys plan to claim he was suffering from extreme emotional disturbance when he fatally shot UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on the street in New York City in December 2024. Even if a jury accepts that defense (which is not the same as an insanity defense), it wouldn’t keep Mangione out of prison, though it could mean he would serve 25 years rather than a life sentence if he is found guilty. The state trial is scheduled to begin on Sept. 8, and Mangione is also facing a federal trial where this defense is not available.

Allbirds ditches its name after pivoting to AI. Underscoring its recent abrupt shift from making the sneakers worn by tech workers to focusing on actual AI tech, Allbirds rebranded itself yesterday as Smartbird Inc. (after its previous change to NewBird AI in April). It also tapped Nadia Carlsten, who formerly headed a Danish AI infrastructure group, as its new CEO. The move helps put shoes in the rearview mirror with the sale of its Allbirds brand and footwear assets now complete. And Carlsten is not looking back: “I’m more of a high heels person myself,” Carlsten told Business Insider. “I’m blissfully unaware of all things Allbirds.” The news sent the former footwear company’s stock up 39% yesterday.—AR

STRAIT TALK

What’s actually in the US–Iran deal

Atta Kenare/Getty Images

Yesterday, the US officially released the “memorandum of understanding” reached with Iran, a 14-point list of provisions that President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also electronically signed yesterday. The document is expected to kick off negotiations on a final settlement in Switzerland tomorrow.

In exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and pledging not to procure or develop nuclear weapons, the agreement outlines a number of economic benefits:

It establishes a $300 billion fund to help rebuild the country, though President Trump said the US would not contribute to it.
The US will waive all sanctions on Iran and unfreeze funds if the country meets the US’ nuclear terms.
In what’s viewed as a big win for Iran, it is allowed to sell oil immediately.

Trump said he was motivated to make a deal to avoid being compared to Herbert Hoover, who was president during the 1929 stock market crash that preceded the Great Depression. “I didn’t want to see an economic catastrophe,” Trump said.

Iran and the US have 60 days to finalize negotiations, which will likely focus on Iran’s nuclear program in the long term.

Looking ahead: President Trump told the press that he may pass responsibility for the deal to Vice President JD Vance, saying, “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.”—MM

Three Headlines and a Lie

Three of these headlines are real and one is faker than a 6:30am start time for a group bike ride. Can you spot the odd one out?

Mystery potato hovering over Colorado is reported in latest UFO files
Are Scottish soccer fans drinking all of the beer in Boston?
Vultures are stinking up this North Carolina town. Locals want justice.
The startup promising to recycle old towels has just been throwing them away

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ANSWER

We made up the one about the deceptive towel-recycling startup.

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: scuttles, meaning “deliberately causing a plan to fail.” Thanks to Maria from Houston, TX, for a suggestion that didn’t throw us off course. Submit another Word of the Day here.

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