Wealthsimple

August 17, 2026

In This Issue

8 min read

Claude wants credit

Canada’s enormous earnings

Home ownership’s harsh realities

Even if your dream house doesn’t put you in the poorhouse, owning a home can leave you feeling like the walls are closing in (and the floor’s about to collapse — careful, Tom!). More on that below. | Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection

The Week in Markets

AI doomers are staring down extinction

Markets are fickle, sure, and nobody knows what’s next, but at some point the AI doomers will need to come up with better material to boost their cause célèbre. (Sell-ebre?) Both the S&P and the TSX scored fresh all-time highs last week — their 29th and 34th ATHs, respectively, this year alone, despite some not-insignificant pressure tests along the way, including the implosion of Situational Awareness, which briefly seemed like it might be the AI economy’s Marie Antoinette moment. But in the end, only the honeymoon got cancelled.

And so naturally all this bullish good news has commentators wondering: wait, is it actually bad news? To be fair, if you crack open a window, it’s not great out there! But, as Citadel Securities market guru Scott Rubner laid out, stock values have gotten cheaper lately: prices are up, of course, but earnings are up even more. Hence the S&P’s overall forward P/E ratio has come down since January, from 23x to 20x, while the TSX’s has stayed flat at a lower ceiling (~16x). “There are legitimate valuation debates,” Rubner writes. “But this is a very different setup from 1999.” Meaning: don’t hold your breath for a blowup.

TSX:	+1.1% (+15.2% YTD)

S&P 500:	+0.5% (+13.5% YTD)

One Chart That Explains Everything

Is the AI bull run almost over or just getting started?

Superlatives of the Week

North America’s least AI-powered earnings boom: In the States, 50% of earnings growth this year has been driven by AI hardware. Canada is light on AI companies, and yet TSX companies are beating their American counterparts in Q2, with profit growth up 34% year-over-year (the best showing since the pandemic), compared to the S&P 500’s 33%. How’s that possible? Thank gasoline and gold (and uranium, etc.). The energy sector grew earnings by 120% year-over-year, while the country’s mining giants notched 61% YoY growth, with war-related supply disruptions boosting demand for Canada’s natural resources.

Most quasi-reassuring baby step to help us all spot AI slop: Did you know that perhaps half of all new articles posted online and a quarter of social posts over 250 words are AI-generated? The EU is sick of all the slop, and, in response to political pressure last week, Anthropic announced that it will embed watermarks in all of its AI-generated content, including text, to make AI slop easier to identify. Economist Jodi Beggs spots the irony: AI, the final boss of plagiarism, now wants credit for its work.

Most accursed “30 Under 30” magazine list: The Forbes 30 Under 30 list, now in its 15th year, has shown a remarkable penchant for identifying young founders just before things go very sideways. Several 30U30 alums have flamed out so spectacularly — FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, pharma bro Martin Shkreli — that the list seems very jinxed. Just ask Phoebe Gates (daughter of Bill), who made the list in January and was facing fraud allegations by July. Now the list has turned on its creator, longtime Forbes content director Randall Lane, who got canned after he accepted a US$6 million “gift” from a partner of the publication. (Then again, he got $6M and he doesn’t have to edit that list anymore, so … curse broken!)

—Ian Frisch

The FOMO Index

by Stacey Woods

Important

AI agent hacks gym computer to get its user into a Pilates class. Now they’re saying that CrowdStrike crash started with a double-booked facialist.
Source

Auditions are now open for Love Is Blind: Canada. And, yes, you can submit the same tape you used for Love Island: Baffin.
Source

Petition calls for removal of U.S. ambassador to Canada. First rule of ambassador to Canada: don’t talk about seizing Canada.
Source

Lululemon’s enormous “Big-Ass Bag” is going viral. Can double as a pod if you’re playing the Love Is Blind home game.
Source

Crash & Burn

To the Moon

U.K. pubs and restaurants are banning AI glasses. Don’t want anything smarter than beer goggles.
Source

7UP is getting a “lime-forward” rebrand. Lemon hoping Arnold Palmer doesn’t get any big ideas.
Source

This year’s Toronto International Film Festival will feature a documentary about Neil Peart. Rush fans excited to air-talk along with him.
Source

Major dairy producer races to expand Toronto plant to fight national cottage cheese shortage. Guess that carton-shaped light in the sky really worked.
Source

Who Cares?

The Big Important Story

Why Owning a Home (Probably) Won’t Make You Feel Rich

Canadians have a complicated relationship with real estate. For decades, owning a home was seen as a surefire path to wealth. But financial consultant Elizabeth George argues that, even when buying pays off, it often doesn’t make us feel wealthy. In a recent Substack essay, George, who lives in Dallas and spent nearly two decades in wealth management, explains why. We called her up and asked her to elaborate.

At what age did you buy your first property?

I was lucky. I bought my first condo at 22. It cost $145,000, and I used money my grandparents had saved for me. I naively believed the finance books that said you should buy a property every other year. So, a year later, I bought a dilapidated duplex. My dad told me not to, and in hindsight, he was probably right. The duplex needed a total renovation. I cried in Home Depot more times than I can count.

I made money when I sold it 15 years later, but if I had left my money in the S&P 500, it would have done much better. [Note: Canadian stocks have generally outperformed home prices long term too.]

What do people tend to get wrong about renting vs. buying?

People always compare the cost of rent versus their mortgage. But I like to remind clients that your rent is the maximum you will pay for your housing. Your mortgage is the minimum, since houses require constant maintenance. There’s also the time commitment. Instead of a weekend side hustle, you’re refinishing cabinets. When you rent, you’re outsourcing your housing to somebody else.

But homeownership can be a great lifestyle choice, right?

That’s true. I’m not anti-real estate. Owning real estate lets you put down roots and build equity. That said, I think the cons of home ownership are overlooked.

Talk about the cons investing-wise.

One is that having a large portion of your net worth tied up in any single asset, like a home, is risky. On a personal level, owning a home doesn’t necessarily make you feel wealthy, because you might have to drain your savings for a down payment. Then your equity is basically trapped until you sell. That, and your mortgage can leave you cash-strapped month to month. So many people watch their net worth grow on paper while their standard of living doesn’t improve.

In a footnote, you advise women against keeping the family home in a divorce. Why?

I’ve worked with many couples going through a split, and the wife typically wants the house for the kids’ sake, while the husband takes the investment accounts. But then the wife has very little liquidity [i.e., easily accessible money] and struggles to save for retirement while covering the mortgage. So she ends up selling the house anyway. I went through a divorce myself two years ago. My ex took his share of our home equity in stocks, which are up more than 50% since then. My home value is flat.

But surely there’s a catch to renting or everyone would do it.

A mortgage is a forced-savings vehicle. If you’re not going to own, you’ll need a disciplined savings plan.

How should someone decide to rent or buy?

It depends on your finances and goals. If you buy a house, enjoy it: you’ll have a high degree of stability. But renting has benefits too. If you want to be financially free, you can’t have half your income going toward your mortgage payment.

This interview, conducted by Marin Cogan, was edited for length and clarity.

Read more: Should You Buy or Rent? A Quick Formula to See

Finance 101

A quick retirement-tracker rule of thumb

How much money you’ll need to save for retirement depends on all sorts of things. But if you want a loose target, try to save 1x your salary by age 30, 3x by age 40, and 6x by age 50. Is your portfolio well south of those benchmarks? Don’t freak! Those are ambitious targets. This guide can give you a clearer picture of your goals.

Wisdom of X

Guy who looks at this chart, and decides to get into sports betting, because the market is rigged

Thoughts on Today’s Issue?

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This week’s newsletter contributors: Brennan Doherty (writer), Devin Gordon (writer), David Walters (writer), Stacey Woods (writer), Ian Frisch (writer), Ambrose Martos (fact checker), Ciara Rickard (copy editor), Maude Campbell (copy editor), Sara Black McCulloch (fact checker), Katie Noll (senior specialist, product engagement), Lauren Edwards (production coordinator), Matthew Karasz (markets editor), Jared Sullivan (senior editor), Peter Martin (senior editor), and Devin Friedman (editor-in-chief).

TWIM: Total returns shown in local currency, via TradingView.

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TLDR is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are those of the individual author and/or of Wealthsimple Media Inc., not of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. The content in TLDR is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, nor any other kind of professional advice. TLDR is not a research report and should not serve as the basis for making investment decisions. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. When you invest, your money is at risk and it is possible that you may lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Historical returns, hypothetical returns, expected returns and images included in this content are for illustrative purposes only. Always research before investing.

🏠 How to be house poor